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Rates for Oct 8, 2026 · NY Fed data

Federal funds target range history

The target range is 3.75%–4.00%. On October 8, 2026 EFFR printed 3.88% and SOFR 3.87%.

The Federal Open Market Committee sets a target range for the federal funds rate, and the New York Fed reports that range alongside every day's effective federal funds rate (EFFR). This page lists every range in that data since April 2, 2018, the first value date of SOFR, and measures where SOFR traded relative to it. SOFR is a repo rate, not the rate the FOMC targets, so it can and does leave the range.

Target range
3.75%–4.00%
As reported with EFFR for Oct 8, 2026
Range changes
26
15 increases, 11 decreases since April 2018
Last change
+25 bp
From Sep 17, 2026
SOFR above range
62 days
Of 2,129 published SOFR days

The range, EFFR and SOFR since 2018

Federal funds target range (shaded) with EFFR and SOFR (% per year)

-0.440.842.113.394.665.9420192020202120222023202420252026EFFRSOFR
EFFRSOFRFed funds target range

The shaded band is the target range. EFFR, the amber line, stays inside it on every day but one. SOFR, the green line, follows the band but strays outside it, most visibly in late 2018 and through 2019, and again in the fourth quarter of 2025. The single tall spike is September 17, 2019, when SOFR printed 5.25% against a range of 2.00%–2.25%. That one day stretches the vertical scale, so small excursions elsewhere look flatter than they are.

Every range change in the data

Federal funds target range as reported alongside EFFR by the New York Fed. Dates are the first EFFR effective date in each range (the day the new range applied), not FOMC announcement dates.
First EFFR date in rangeTarget rangeChange (bp)
Sep 17, 20263.75%–4.00%+25
Dec 11, 20253.50%–3.75%-25
Oct 30, 20253.75%–4.00%-25
Sep 18, 20254.00%–4.25%-25
Dec 19, 20244.25%–4.50%-25
Nov 8, 20244.50%–4.75%-25
Sep 19, 20244.75%–5.00%-50
Jul 27, 20235.25%–5.50%+25
May 4, 20235.00%–5.25%+25
Mar 23, 20234.75%–5.00%+25
Feb 2, 20234.50%–4.75%+25
Dec 15, 20224.25%–4.50%+50
Nov 3, 20223.75%–4.00%+75
Sep 22, 20223.00%–3.25%+75
Jul 28, 20222.25%–2.50%+75
Jun 16, 20221.50%–1.75%+75
May 5, 20220.75%–1.00%+50
Mar 17, 20220.25%–0.50%+25
Mar 16, 20200.00%–0.25%-100
Mar 4, 20201.00%–1.25%-50
Oct 31, 20191.50%–1.75%-25
Sep 19, 20191.75%–2.00%-25
Aug 1, 20192.00%–2.25%-25
Dec 20, 20182.25%–2.50%+25
Sep 27, 20182.00%–2.25%+25
Jun 14, 20181.75%–2.00%+25
Apr 2, 20181.50%–1.75%—

Why these are not FOMC announcement dates

The dates above come from the New York Fed's EFFR series, not from FOMC statements. Each EFFR observation carries a targetRateFrom and targetRateTo for its effective date, and the table records the first effective date on which a new pair appears. The effective date is the trading day the rate describes; the rate itself is published the next business day at about 9:00 a.m. ET. So a row dated September 17, 2026 means the first trading day priced inside the new range was September 17, 2026. It does not tell you when the committee met or when the decision was announced. For those dates, use the Federal Reserve Board's record of policy rate changes.

The first row, April 2, 2018, is not a change. It is the range in force when the SOFR series starts, 1.50%–1.75%.

Rate cycles in the data

Target range cycles from the EFFR series. Dates are first EFFR effective dates in each new range. Grouping into cycles by BitsSecurity.
CycleFirst and last moveMovesRange before → afterNet change
2018 increasesJun 14, 2018 – Dec 20, 20183 × 25 bp1.50–1.75% → 2.25–2.50%+75 bp
2019 decreasesAug 1, 2019 – Oct 31, 20193 × 25 bp2.25–2.50% → 1.50–1.75%−75 bp
2020 cuts to zeroMar 4, 2020 – Mar 16, 202050 bp, 100 bp1.50–1.75% → 0.00–0.25%−150 bp
2022–23 increasesMar 17, 2022 – Jul 27, 2023110.00–0.25% → 5.25–5.50%+525 bp
2024–25 decreasesSep 19, 2024 – Dec 11, 202565.25–5.50% → 3.50–3.75%−175 bp
2026 increaseSep 17, 20261 × 25 bp3.50–3.75% → 3.75–4.00%+25 bp

2018 and 2019. Three 25 bp increases in 2018 took the range to 2.25%–2.50%, where it stayed for 153 SOFR days until three 25 bp decreases between August 1 and October 31, 2019. SOFR spent more time above the top of the range in these two years than in any others: 41 days in total. The largest gaps were 50 bp on December 31, 2018 (SOFR 3.00%), 65 bp on January 2, 2019 (3.15%) and 300 bp on September 17, 2019. That September day is also the only EFFR print outside the range in the whole series: 2.30% against a 2.25% ceiling.

2020. The range fell 50 bp in the series from March 4, 2020 and another 100 bp from March 16, 2020, to 0.00%–0.25%. SOFR dropped from 1.10% on March 13 to 0.26% on March 16, then printed 0.54% on March 17, 29 bp over the new ceiling. The zero range then held for 502 SOFR days, through March 16, 2022, with SOFR averaging 0.055%.

2022–23. Eleven increases in sixteen months: five of 25 bp, two of 50 bp and four of 75 bp, the 75 bp moves first appearing on June 16, July 28, September 22 and November 3, 2022. SOFR never printed above the range during this cycle. Instead it printed below the bottom of the range on 16 days in 2022, from June 13 to June 24 and from September 22 to September 30, by as much as 6 bp. The final range, 5.25%–5.50%, held for 288 SOFR days, the longest stretch at a single nonzero range in the data.

2024–25. A 50 bp cut appearing on September 19, 2024 was followed by two 25 bp cuts in November and December 2024 and three more between September and December 2025. SOFR crossed the ceiling twice in 2024, on October 1 (5.05%) and December 26, and 17 times in 2025, every one of them between September 15 and December 31. The largest was 22 bp on October 31, 2025, when SOFR printed 4.22% against a 4.00% ceiling.

2026. The range was 3.50%–3.75% from the start of the year until it rose 25 bp in the series dated September 17, 2026. EFFR moved from 3.63% on September 16 to 3.88% on September 17 and has printed 3.88% on every day since. SOFR went from 3.62% to 3.85% across the same two days. Through October 8, 2026, SOFR has not printed above the range this year; it touched the ceiling once, at 3.75% on January 2. The data say what the range did, not why; for the committee's reasoning, read the FOMC statement on the Federal Reserve Board's site.

Where SOFR sat in the range, by year

SOFR and EFFR relative to the federal funds target range in force on each effective date. Computed by BitsSecurity from Federal Reserve Bank of New York data; 2018 starts April 2 and 2026 runs through October 8.
YearSOFR daysAbove topAt topBelow bottomSOFR avg above bottom (bp)EFFR avg above bottom (bp)
20181882313020.518.2
2019250185016.912.7
20202512007.78.2
20212500003.97.9
202224900163.58.0
20232490005.97.9
20242502008.18.0
2025249174012.19.1
202619301013.613.3
All years2,129622316——

The last two columns are the more useful ones day to day. They show the average distance of each rate from the bottom of the range, so a 25 bp range runs from 0 to 25. From 2020 through 2024 EFFR sat in a narrow 7.9 to 8.2 bp band. SOFR moved far more: from 3.5 bp in 2022, below EFFR, to 12.1 bp in 2025, above it. That migration is the same shift you see in the SOFR − EFFR spread on the benchmarks page, expressed against the policy range instead of against EFFR. The EFFR column averages every EFFR day in the year, including the few dates when SOFR was not published.

How the counts are made

Each SOFR observation is compared with the range reported on the EFFR row for the same effective date. "Above top" means SOFR printed at least 1 bp over the upper limit; "at top" means it equalled it. Because both SOFR and EFFR are rounded to the nearest basis point, a print at the boundary can sit slightly on either side of it before rounding.

Using the range in calculations

From 2022 on, SOFR moved within 3 bp of the range change on the first day of each new range: 75 bp on June 16, 2022 against a 75 bp increase, for example, and −24 bp on December 11, 2025 against a 25 bp cut. The earlier record is looser. In 2018 and 2019 the first-day moves ran from 6 bp to 60 bp against 25 bp changes, the largest a 60 bp drop on September 19, 2019, when SOFR was still falling back from its spike. In March 2020 SOFR fell 41 bp and 84 bp against cuts of 50 bp and 100 bp. Even when the first day tracked the range, SOFR's position inside it drifted by several basis points over the following months. To test a loan or note against a parallel move, use the rate shock calculator. To pull SOFR for the days around any change, use the SOFR history lookup, or open the year-by-year pages under SOFR history. The secured vs unsecured rates guide covers the administered rates the Fed uses to hold market rates inside the range.

Target range and rates: Federal Reserve Bank of New York EFFR and SOFR data. Cycle grouping, counts and averages are computed by BitsSecurity and are not New York Fed figures.